Thursday, March 24, 2022

Sixth wave or not a sixth wave: Depends on the testing

 As we are at the cusp of loosening restrictions on masking and other public health mandates, there has already been a jump in cases. Many indicators suggest that this could be the start of the 6th wave, however without adequate testing we have no way of capturing if the rise in cases is beyond expected. 

Despite the theoretical availability of rapid testing kits at pharmacies and other locations, many people have been unable to acquire them. Since you are prohibited from taking public transit when symptomatic, PCR testing is then only accessible via drive-through. This is impractical for people who cannot drive, cannot afford taxis, or do not have access to cars. When trying to order home testing kits online, the average delivery time is 5-7 business days, which is too long of a window to accurately capture positive cases. In addition, several websites are out of stock anyway. Lastly, while private PCR testing is potentially more accessible it is unaffordable for many people.

So where do we go from here? The only way to understand the evolution of cases is to collect the data. Without access to testing, we could easily underestimate the number of cases circulating in the community until it is too late. I would like to advocate for the distribution of rapid testing kits to all households, systematic testing in high risk environments to capture asymptomatic cases, easy reporting of positive at home testing results, and clear public health guidelines on when/how long to isolate. 

A rise in cases with the ease of restrictions does not automatically indicate an impending 6th wave. Yet, we will never know the difference unless we look for it.